Is There an AI Bubble? No, But Some Tech Companies Show Signs
New Cornell research answers the AI bubble question with a statistical test rather than an opinion, and the answer is neither yes nor no. Using a stochastic-volatility-robust augmented Dickey-Fuller framework, Abir Sarkar and Martin Wells date-stamp the start and end of explosive price behaviour for twelve AI-exposed firms across 2018 to 2026. The sector as a whole shows no exuberance, and neither does the NASDAQ Composite; Alphabet, TSMC, Micron, Nvidia, Broadcom and Palantir do. This breakdown reads every date stamp the model produced, compares them with the standard test that flags eleven of the same twelve companies, sets the result against the Bank of England’s warnings on concentration and leverage, and translates the whole thing into the only question most businesses actually need to answer about their AI suppliers.