Dutch government departments will lose about 25,000 full-time jobs by 2035, roughly 16 percent of the central civil service, under a plan published on Monday 26 October 2026. The cabinet wants a state that is “simpler, smarter and smaller”, and artificial intelligence is one of the tools it says will help get there. The savings target starts at €900 million in 2027 and rises to €3.5 billion a year from 2035.
The plan was set out by Eric van der Burg, the VVD state secretary responsible for what the Dutch government calls a “decisive government”, in a 15-page progress letter to the House of Representatives. Police and defence are exempt. Many other organisations face cuts of around 20 percent, a few far more. The cabinet promises “ambitious” targets and savings plans for AI in the first quarter of 2027.
Read past the headlines, though, and the most striking line is a warning. In an appendix on lessons from twenty years of cuts, the Dutch government tells parliament not to overestimate what digitalisation and AI can do for headcount. This article explains what was announced, where the 16 percent figure comes from, what role AI really plays, and what other organisations planning AI-driven cuts can learn from it.
Table of contents
- What the Dutch Government Announced on 26 October
- The Savings Path: How Dutch Government Cuts Rise to €3.5bn
- Why the Dutch Government Workforce Grew 41% Since 2018
- Who the Dutch Government Exempts, and Who Takes the Hit
- What Role AI Actually Plays in the Dutch Government Plan
- The Dutch Government’s Own Warning About AI Savings
- Beyond AI: Rules, Desks and Advisory Bodies
- How Dutch Government Services Should Change for Citizens
- Unions and Critics Push Back on the Dutch Government Plan
- Can AI Really Deliver a 16 Percent Smaller Dutch Government?
- Lessons for UK Organisations Planning AI Efficiency Cuts
- What Happens Next for the Dutch Government Plan
- Frequently Asked Questions
- References
What the Dutch Government Announced on 26 October
The announcement came in two parts on the same morning. The government news service published a summary at 09:00, and the full letter, reference 2026-0000560972, was sent to the Tweede Kamer with a numerical appendix. Van der Burg also gave an interview to the Amsterdam newspaper Het Parool, which NL Times reported.
The letter and the minister behind it
Van der Burg is state secretary for Kingdom Relations and Decisive Government at the Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations. He leads a ministerial taskforce that has four lines of work: simplification, excellent digital service, a more productive civil service, and breaking down what the letter calls “The Hague walls” between departments.
He was blunt in the summary published by the Dutch government. “We cannot keep doing what we did,” he said. “With too many rules, exceptions and procedures, we sometimes make it unnecessarily hard for ourselves to solve problems.” He added that the state must also “cut substantially on organisational costs”, and promised “sharp choices for a central government that really works: simpler, smarter and smaller”.
The headline numbers
The core figures are in the letter and its appendix. The table collects them in one place.
| Measure | Figure | Source in the plan |
|---|---|---|
| Central civil service, 31 December 2025 | 160,016 FTE | Appendix, table 1 |
| Growth since 2018 | ~41% (46,500 FTE) | Appendix |
| Estimated job reduction | ~25,000 FTE over several years | Letter and appendix |
| Savings in 2027 | €901 million | Appendix, table 3 |
| Savings from 2035 | €3,490 million a year | Appendix, table 3 |
| Typical cut per organisation | ~20%, up to ~45%, one case ~60% | Letter, section 6 |
| AI targets and savings plans | First quarter of 2027 | Letter, action line 3 |
Where the 16 percent comes from
Neither the press release nor the letter uses the figure 16 percent. It is arithmetic. The appendix puts the central civil service at 160,016 full-time equivalents at the end of 2025, and 25,000 ÷ 160,016 ≈ 15.6 percent, which rounds to 16. Engadget, NL Times and DutchNews all used that figure. Reuters headlined it as around 20 percent of government jobs, reflecting the letter’s statement that many organisations face a reduction of about 20 percent.
The two numbers are not in conflict. Sixteen percent is the average across all 160,016 posts. Twenty percent is what a typical organisation inside the Dutch government will feel, because the exempt bodies and the uneven distribution push more of the cut onto everyone else.
The Savings Path: How Dutch Government Cuts Rise to €3.5bn
This is not a one-year shock. The cuts were booked by two cabinets, the Schoof cabinet and the current Jetten cabinet, and they build up over a decade. The appendix lists the target for every year.
Year by year
The chart shows the cumulative annual saving in selected years as a share of the 2035 figure of €3,490 million. For example, 2027’s €901 million ÷ €3,490 million ≈ 26 percent.
The steepest climb is between 2027 and 2030, when the annual target rises from €901 million to €2,491 million. After that it grows by about €200 million a year. That shape matters: most of the pain lands in the next four budgets, well before any AI programme announced in 2027 could be running at scale.
What 25,000 jobs means in money
The appendix admits the conversion from euros to jobs is rough. It depends on whether the cuts fall on staff in higher or lower pay scales, so the Dutch government calls 25,000 FTE “a rough estimate”. Dividing the 2035 target by the job figure gives €3,490 million ÷ 25,000 ≈ €140,000 per FTE. That is a cost per post, including overheads, not a salary.
The appendix also notes that the €3.5 billion excludes years of inflation corrections that were never fully paid out. Those act as a hidden extra cut, so the real squeeze on budgets is larger than the headline number.
Euros and dollars
International coverage converted the figures into dollars. Reuters used a rate of $1 = €0.8925, which turns €3.5 billion into about $3.9 billion. Engadget gave the 2027 figure as around $1 billion. The Dutch government itself only uses euros.
Why the Dutch Government Workforce Grew 41% Since 2018
A 16 percent cut sounds dramatic, but it follows a period of rapid growth. The appendix says the central civil service grew by about 41 percent, or 46,500 FTE, between 2018 and the end of 2025. Working backwards, 160,016 − 46,500 ≈ 113,500 FTE in 2018. Removing 25,000 would leave about 135,000, still well above the 2018 level.
Policy staff grew fastest
In his Parool interview, as reported by NL Times, Van der Burg said the number of staff implementing laws rose by 28 percent since 2018, while the number involved in making policy rose by 56 percent. That split helps explain why the cabinet talks so much about fewer rules, fewer evaluations and fewer advisory bodies. More policy staff generate more policy, which then needs more people to carry it out.
The letter is careful not to blame the growth on waste alone. It says the idea that departments could simply return to their 2019 or 2020 size “ignores the number of new tasks and heavier tasks” added in recent years.
The wider public sector
The 160,016 figure covers only staff under the central government collective labour agreement: ministries, inspectorates and implementing agencies. Table 2 in the appendix lists other public bodies, which the cut mostly does not touch.
| Organisation | 2019 (x1,000 FTE) | 2025 (x1,000 FTE) | Growth 2019-2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Judiciary | 16.9 | 21.2 | +25% |
| Independent administrative bodies (ZBOs) | 43.5 | 56.4 | +30% |
| Defence | 59.5 | 74.1 | +25% |
| National Police | 64.0 | 69.1 | +8% |
| Total | 183.9 | 220.8 | +20% |
Put side by side, the central civil service is by far the largest single block the Dutch government controls directly. The chart compares each group with it, using the 2025 figures: Defence is 74.1 ÷ 160.0 ≈ 46 percent of its size, for example.
Who the Dutch Government Exempts, and Who Takes the Hit
The cut is not spread evenly, and the letter is open about that. Because large organisations are exempt, the target “lands for the most part” on departments, inspectorates and implementing agencies.
The exempt list
Police and defence are the exemptions everyone reported. The appendix names more. It lists the custodial institutions agency (DJI), the security services, the High Councils of State, the foreign ministry’s network of embassies and consulates, and the Public Prosecution Service as organisations that are exempt from one or more of the cuts.
That list explains a good part of the gap between 16 and 20 percent. Every protected organisation makes the cut deeper for those that are left.
20, 45 and 60 percent
The letter states that “for many organisations” the personnel consequences mean a reduction of about 20 percent. For some, it says, the cut could rise to about 45 percent in the coming years, and “in a single case even to about 60 percent”. The appendix adds that there are policy directorates where the effective cut rises to about 45 percent.
Those extreme figures are not all new policy. Some Dutch government work was funded with temporary money, for example staff working on the climate and energy transition. When a temporary budget runs out, it acts as an extra cut on top of the planned one.
Implementation will feel it
The letter stresses that most civil servants work in implementation, not in The Hague policy offices. “A large part of the task will also land on implementation,” it says. DutchNews reported that the tax administration and the employee insurance agency UWV are not expected to be spared. The appendix warns that the measures “may have consequences for service delivery, continuity and existing implementation tasks”. That is a frank admission for a document announcing cuts.
What Role AI Actually Plays in the Dutch Government Plan
Most headlines framed the plan as an AI efficiency push. The text supports that, but only up to a point. AI appears in a handful of paragraphs, and the detail has been deferred.
One firm commitment
The firm promise is a date. In line with a parliamentary motion by Brekelmans (VVD) and Bontenbal (CDA), the cabinet will come in the first quarter of 2027 with “ambitious targets and savings plans” on how AI can be used for simplification, service delivery and productivity. Until then, the Dutch government has not said how much of the €3.5 billion it expects AI to deliver.
The letter says AI initiatives have already been rolled out in several parts of the civil service in recent years. The aim is to apply AI “ever more broadly”, within the preconditions of security, data quality and sovereignty, and closely tied to the Dutch Digitalisation Strategy. It also admits this needs changes to infrastructure and “fundamentally revising work processes”.
AI in procurement and services
Two concrete uses are named. Procurement will “systematically examine where AI can be introduced”, alongside fewer requirements, more joint buying and a higher tendering threshold. The letter says this needs one government-wide digital infrastructure. NL Times also reported that the plan expands digital services such as chatbots, which typically rely on natural language processing to understand questions from the public.
The letter also notes that technology being developed at the Ministry of Defence might be reused by other ministries. That is a familiar idea in any large organisation: build a capability once, then share it, instead of letting every department buy its own.
The Netherlands Digital Service
A new body supports all of this. The Netherlands Digital Service (NLDD) started before the summer. Its first three projects are a working design for a scalable sovereign government cloud, an environment and marketplace that makes it easier for businesses to deal with the Dutch government, and a method for writing legislation as executable code. The NLDD will also enforce common standards and introduce guidelines for modern IT development, with results due early in 2027.
Organisations that are planning their own AI strategy will recognise the order of work here: standards, shared infrastructure and process redesign first, then the AI savings.
The Dutch Government's Own Warning About AI Savings
The most useful part of the plan for anyone outside the Netherlands sits on page 15. Under the heading “Lessons from earlier cuts”, the Dutch government lists six things it learned from twenty years of trying to shrink the state. The second one is about technology.
Lesson two, in full
Translated from the Dutch, it reads: “Do not overestimate the staffing effects of digitalisation and AI. Government processes have become much larger in scale over the past two decades. They have been digitalised and automated. However, the promises of lower costs and fewer staff have not been fulfilled. It led to new tasks, more capacity and more hired-in staff. A number of organisations currently face major legacy challenges.”
That is a striking thing to put in the same letter that promises ambitious AI savings plans. It reads less like a contradiction than a deliberate hedge: the cabinet wants AI targets, but it does not want the cut to depend on them.
One third efficiency, two thirds choices
The letter’s arithmetic shows why. It follows the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), which considers a general efficiency gain of 0.5 percent a year realistic for central government. The cabinet builds a maximum of 0.5 percent a year into the cut and says this covers “about one third” of the task. The other two thirds need what the letter calls strategic choices about what the state does “differently, less or no longer”.
The strategic part is sorted into four pillars: functional business operations through standardisation; simpler chains and schemes; better digital service through digitising and automating processes; and fewer layers of steering, control and advice. AI could contribute to all four, but only the third is primarily about technology.
The end of the cheese slicer
Lesson one explains the method. Most past programmes, the appendix says, were a kaasschaaf, a cheese slicer, where every unit got a percentage and was left to find the savings. “On paper the cuts were realised, but because of new spending the government kept growing.” The Dutch government says it will avoid that this time with central choices, clear definitions and targets for budget, headcount and hired staff.
It is a lesson that travels. Any organisation that sets a flat AI saving across every team, without deciding which work to stop, risks the same result: a smaller payroll on paper and a larger contractor bill in practice.
Beyond AI: Rules, Desks and Advisory Bodies
The Dutch government plan is much broader than AI. Many of the measures are about doing less, not doing the same work with software. The table summarises the main ones.
| Measure | Today | Plan |
|---|---|---|
| Rules scrapped or simplified | Departmental targets since 1 October | At least 500 a year, half for citizens and professionals, half for businesses |
| Standing advisory councils | 28 | “Substantially” fewer; targets set this year |
| Advisory committees | About 150 | “Substantially” fewer |
| Policy evaluations | About 400 a year | Sharply fewer; perhaps 10 or 20 that are truly needed |
| Office desks | Under-used | 0.5 workplaces per employee; surplus buildings disposed of |
| Government websites | Almost 1,700 registered, almost 1,000 for core departments | Under review by the government information council |
Fewer rules, and a German test
The 500-rule approach began on 1 October, with a target for each department. To strengthen it, the Dutch government will borrow a German idea: a reversed burden of proof. For selected rules, the responsible ministry must show the rule is still needed. If it cannot, the rule goes. New rules will also be checked for a “horizon clause”, so they lapse automatically unless someone decides to keep them.
The letter also names the “risk-rule reflex”, the habit of answering every incident with new rules and new supervision. Controlling that reflex, it says, means accepting more risk. Supervision tasks will be reviewed against a new framework, with the main choices due by the end of 2027.
One desk for every two staff
Office space is the easiest saving to picture. The Dutch government will move to a portfolio norm of 0.5 workplaces per employee, unless security obligations from NATO or the EU require otherwise. Van der Burg told Het Parool, as reported by NL Times, that occupancy rarely reaches 70 percent even on busy days. Surplus buildings will be disposed of.
Advice, evaluations and transparency law
The cabinet wants fewer standing advisory councils and committees, and far fewer policy evaluations. It argues that bundling advice will make it stronger, not weaker. It will also prepare changes to the Open Government Act (Woo), the Dutch freedom-of-information law, which the letter says creates “enormous legal and administrative burdens” because requests are often so broad that it is unclear what must be provided. The proposals are meant to reduce legal disputes and costs while keeping effective transparency.
How Dutch Government Services Should Change for Citizens
The cabinet presents the cuts as part of a better service, not only a smaller one. Action line two of the letter is about what citizens and businesses should notice.
Data sharing within two years
At present, every exchange of data between Dutch government organisations has to be arranged separately, and often it is not arranged at all. People are asked for the same information again and again, and some miss support they are entitled to. The cabinet has commissioned a structural solution for data sharing, only for proactive service, to be completed within two years. It cites Belgium and Estonia as examples and promises that shared data will not be used for enforcement or criminal investigation.
Always the right door
A second initiative is called “always the right door”: whoever you contact should help you or refer you properly. It is taking shape in 28 initiatives involving more than 40 municipalities and eight public service providers. One example is MijnBetaaloverzicht, a single overview of what a citizen owes to different government organisations.
The letter points to existing successes too. The social insurance bank SVB scores an average of more than 8 out of 10 from users, and the tax administration’s pre-filled income tax return is singled out as a step forward. It also admits that take-up of income support schemes remains low, and it cites the childcare benefits scandal as an example of rules so complex that they made problems worse.
For organisations working on their own digital transformation, the order is instructive. Shared data and a single front door come before chatbots, because an AI assistant can only answer what the systems behind it can see.
Unions and Critics Push Back on the Dutch Government Plan
Reaction was quick, and much of the scepticism had been voiced before the letter even appeared.
FNV calls AI savings wishful thinking
Ten days earlier, on 16 October, the FNV union reacted to an extra €162 million cut at the tax administration, on top of €277 million already announced. FNV Overheid executive Jasper de Jong called it “a crazily bad idea” and said the tax office already has far too few people.
On the plan to rely partly on simpler tax rules and AI, he said: “And now the magic word AI should suddenly make hundreds of millions of euros in savings possible? That is building castles in the air.” He added that using chatbots to fob off citizens with questions “is not an improvement in service, but another way to scale it back”.
The Dutch government’s own lesson two makes a similar point in more careful language. The difference is that the unions read it as a reason not to cut, while the cabinet reads it as a reason to cut by choosing tasks rather than by trusting technology.
No hiring freeze
Van der Burg ruled out a blanket hiring freeze in the Parool interview. Instead, each departure should be assessed to decide whether the post needs filling. The letter explains why: past vacancy freezes drove away good people, who usually have other options, blocked new talent and stopped young staff from progressing. “Years later you are missing whole cohorts in the workforce,” it says.
It also commits to respecting collective labour agreements during reorganisations and to strategic workforce planning, so that faster outflow does not leave the state short of qualified people.
Service risk
The deeper worry is service. The Dutch government warns that cuts could affect service delivery and continuity, and that most of the civil service is implementation. If the strategic choices are not made, or are made late, the risk is that cuts fall on the people who process benefits, taxes and permits.
Can AI Really Deliver a 16 Percent Smaller Dutch Government?
The honest answer from the documents is: not on its own, and the Dutch government does not claim it can.
The arithmetic of efficiency
At 0.5 percent a year for ten years, general efficiency compounds to about 1 − 0.995^10 ≈ 4.9 percent of costs. That is roughly a third of a 15 to 16 percent reduction, which matches the letter’s “one third”. AI could push the efficiency rate higher, and the 2027 plans may argue that it will. But the cabinet has already budgeted for a world where it does not.
What would have to be true
For AI to carry a bigger share, three things in the plan would have to work first:
- Data that can be shared. Many AI uses in public service, from drafting decisions to answering questions, depend on the data-sharing law that is two years away.
- Shared infrastructure. The letter says AI in procurement needs one government-wide digital infrastructure, and the NLDD’s sovereign cloud is still at the design stage.
- Redesigned processes. The letter itself says AI requires fundamentally revising work processes. Adding AI on top of today’s steps tends to add work, which is exactly what lesson two describes.
Why the framing still matters
Even so, the AI framing is not empty. A government that sets AI targets, measures them and links them to headcount will learn quickly where the technology saves time and where it does not. The plan’s monitor will track regulatory burden, how citizens rate services, and the size of the civil service through costs, headcount and hired staff, with reports to parliament every spring and autumn.
That is the part worth watching. If the Dutch government reports real, measured productivity gains from AI by 2028, it will be one of the first national administrations to show them at scale.
Lessons for UK Organisations Planning AI Efficiency Cuts
Few UK firms will cut 25,000 jobs, but many are being asked to use AI to do more with fewer people. The Dutch government letter is a free case study in how to approach that without repeating old mistakes. Similar questions about pace and fairness come up in our coverage of Bill Gates’ warning about 20 years of AI disruption and in how rewarding the new jobs AI creates really are.
Decide what to stop before you automate
Two thirds of the Dutch saving comes from choosing tasks to drop or simplify. The same logic applies in a business. Map the work, remove what adds no value, then automate what is left with workflow automation or AI. Automating a broken process just makes it run faster.
Budget for investment and keep people in the loop
Lesson five in the letter says change needs time, knowledge and up-front investment, and that costs and benefits often land in different places. AI projects are no different. Plan for the cost of data clean-up, integration and training, and keep a person responsible for decisions that affect customers. Our guide to AI human oversight covers what happens when people must fix AI mistakes.
A practical checklist
| Dutch government lesson | What it means for a UK organisation |
|---|---|
| Strategic cuts, not a cheese slicer | Choose the processes to stop or simplify before setting team-by-team AI savings |
| Do not overestimate AI and digitalisation | Treat AI savings as upside until a pilot has measured them |
| Beware blunt tools such as a hiring freeze | Review each leaver’s role instead of freezing all hiring |
| Respect agreements and plan the workforce | Consult early and map the skills you will still need in five years |
| Make room for investment | Fund data, integration and training before booking savings |
| Clear definitions and central steering | Track cost, headcount and contractor spend together so savings do not move off the books |
Watch contractor spend
The Dutch government targets fewer hired-in staff as well as fewer employees, and it measures both. That closes a common loophole. When a business cuts permanent roles but quietly rehires the same work through agencies or consultants, the AI saving is an illusion.
What Happens Next for the Dutch Government Plan
The letter sets out a crowded calendar. The table lists the dates it commits to.
| When | What the Dutch government has promised |
|---|---|
| 1 December 2026 | Committee debate on decisive government and regulatory burden in the House |
| End of 2026 | Concrete reduction targets for advisory councils and committees |
| Early 2027 | NLDD results; top-incomes law (WNT) review; multi-year approach worked out further |
| First quarter of 2027 | Ambitious AI targets and savings plans |
| Within six months | Multi-year approach for the civil service, with the Committee on the Future of the Civil Service |
| Spring 2027 | How the cuts are filled, in the spring budget memorandum |
| End of 2027 | Main choices on supervision tasks |
The committee report
The biggest unknown is the report of the Committee on the Future of the Civil Service. The letter says major changes wait for it, and that it will include proposals for strategic choices. Those choices will decide which ministries carry the 45 and 60 percent cuts.
The spring memorandum
The detailed allocation of the €900 million for 2027 will come in the spring budget memorandum. That is when individual organisations will learn their numbers, and when the debate about service quality is likely to become concrete. Readers following European AI policy can compare the approach with the EU’s take on Ireland’s AI playbook.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Dutch government really cutting 16 percent of its workforce?
It plans to cut about 25,000 full-time posts by 2035 from a central civil service of 160,016 FTE, which is about 15.6 percent. The figure of 16 percent is that number rounded. Many individual organisations face cuts of around 20 percent.
How much will the Dutch government save?
The target is €901 million in 2027, rising to €3,490 million a year from 2035, according to the appendix to the letter. Reuters converted €3.5 billion to about $3.9 billion.
Are police and defence affected?
No. Police and defence are exempt, along with the custodial institutions agency, the security services, the High Councils of State, the foreign ministry’s embassy network and the Public Prosecution Service, from one or more of the cuts.
How will AI be used?
The details are not public yet. The cabinet will publish AI targets and savings plans in the first quarter of 2027. The letter names procurement and digital services as areas, and stresses security, data quality and sovereignty.
Does the Dutch government think AI alone can deliver the cuts?
No. Its own appendix warns not to overestimate the staffing effects of digitalisation and AI, and says general efficiency covers only about a third of the target. The rest depends on choosing tasks to stop or simplify.
Will there be a hiring freeze?
Van der Burg ruled out a blanket freeze. Each departure will be reviewed to decide whether it needs replacing.
References
Kabinet werkt aan slagvaardige overheid: eenvoudiger, slimmer en kleiner (Rijksoverheid)
Kamerbrief over voortgang slagvaardige overheid (open.overheid.nl)
Dutch government to cut 16 percent of workforce as part of AI efficiency push (Engadget)
Dutch gov’t to cut 16% of its workforce; 25,000 civil servant jobs disappearing by 2035 (NL Times)
Van der Burg plans to use more AI so government can cut payroll (DutchNews.nl)
FNV: Extra bezuinigingen op Belastingdienst zijn waanzin (FNV)
Dutch cabinet wants AI to help slash civil service (DutchNews.nl)
Dutch childcare benefits scandal (Wikipedia)
